Author(s) :

Génie-Spirou Kiala Lutonadio, Raphael Muamba Tshimanga, Alphonse-Roger M’vubu Ntoto, Jacques Ne Bambi Lutaladio, Fenji Materechera, Nelson Odume.

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Abstract :

Vulnerability to climate change, a long-standing focus of scientific research and policy discussions, has become more complex as traditional methods of quantifying vulnerability face significant uncertainties. These uncertainties arise from the complex and evolving nature of climate systems, which involve interactions that are often difficult to measure. This study aims to understand and quantify the vulnerability of ecosystems in the Congo Basin to climate change by developing an Aggregate Vulnerability Index for addressing Climate Change (AVICC). The AVICC uses a holistic methodology that combines both quantitative and qualitative approaches to assess the exposure of the system to climate drivers, the sensitivity of the system particularly to land cover change and its adaptive capacity in terms of socio-economic and institutional factors. This approach includes the analysis of vulnerability indices, their standardisation and aggregation, which allows the quantification of this multidimensional vulnerability and supports the prioritisation of adaptation measures. The case study, which applies the AVICC to the climate-water-migration-conflict nexus in the northeastern Congo Basin, shows that limited adaptive capacity in the Aruwimi, Itimbiri and Uele catchments exacerbates vulnerability to climate change. Socio-economic challenges such as food insecurity, water scarcity, gender inequality and conflicts driven by migration and resource scarcity contribute significantly to this vulnerability. The AVICC provides a comprehensive tool for assessing vulnerability and facilitates the design of targeted adaptation strategies that address environmental, socio-economic and institutional issues related to climate change, thereby in-creasing the resilience of communities and ecosystems to future climate challenges.

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