Author(s) :

Richard sabimana Gasigwa, Cush Ngonzo Luwesi, Roger Kizungu Vumilia.

Volume/Issue :

Abstract :

Climate change poses a growing threat to tropical hydrological systems, affecting water security, rain-fed agriculture, and ecological balance. The Itimbiri basin, located in northern DRC, is particularly vulnerable to rising temperatures, irregular rainfall, and extreme events. This study aims to assess the impact of SSP climate scenarios, modeled with CNRM-CM6, on monthly flows in the basin by 2100, integrating them into the SWAT hydrological model calibrated using local data. A sensitivity analysis identified the key parameters (CN2, ESCO, Alpha_BF) influencing runoff and model performance. The simulations reveal that, after calibration, the model achieves high reliability (NSE = 0.998; R² = 0.998; RMSE = 10.306), with perfect agreement between simulated and observed flows. The reference scenario (ΔP = 0, ΔT = 0) confirms this robustness. Nevertheless, even moderate scenarios such as SSP2-4.5 can generate extreme hydrological responses, highlighting the sensitivity of the basin to climate variability. Wet months amplify runoff and infiltration, while dry months are dominated by evapotranspiration. The study highlights the need to strengthen adaptive water management, including conservation, infrastructure improvements, and agricultural planning. This work demonstrates the relevance of an integrated approach combining climate and hydrological modeling to support sustainable territorial adaptation in tropical regions.

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